This page contains a list of books that are directly relevant to the
discipline of decision analysis and may be suitable as textbooks in
courses related to decision analysis. The list is based on the notes
that I made when searching for a textbook suitable for the class
Decision Analysis and Decision Support Systems that I am teaching in
the Department of Information Sciences and the Intelligent Systems
Program at the University of Pittsburgh. Next to a complete citation
to each of the books, the list includes comments directed mainly,
but not only, at the suitability of the book as a textbook for a
course in decision analysis. I should warn the readers that not only
the comments are subjective. The list itself consists of books that
I was aware of and that I managed to get a hold of. The readers are
strongly urged to comment both on the books and my comments (please
send your comments to OR use
our
Forum).
We would also appreciate additions to the list and information whether
and where a book is used as a textbook.
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[second edition, 1994]
ISBN: 0-521-43131-X (HC), 0-521-43732-6 (PB)
An impressively thorough guide to the psychology of thinking
and deciding, covering philosophical, mathematical, and
empirical aspects of decision making. Written primarily for
psychology students.
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[2nd edition]
ISBN: 0-534-26034-9
This is a nice, accessibly written textbook for advanced
undergraduate and Master's level students. It covers most
aspects of decision analysis, although it may be too brief
on human judgment under uncertainty in case you stress this
in your teaching. One of the strongest aspects of the book
is a wealth of practical examples. I am using it as the
primary textbook for my class Decision Analysis and Support
Systems. The author maintains a World Wide Web page devoted
to the book.
All influence diagram models from the textbook implemented
in GeNIe decision modeling environment (available free of
charge for non-commercial teaching, research, and personal
use) are available from
GeNIe & SMILE
Web site.
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ISBN: 0-15-575215-4
Dawes' book is one of the nicest and most clearly and accessibly
written books on human judgment under uncertainty that are
currently available. A strongly recommended reading for everybody.
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ISBN: 0-7923-9227-2 (PB), 0-7923-9226-4 (HB)
A product of a 1989 conference that was aimed at confronting
generalized theories of utility with leading decision analysts
committed to the classical (von Neumann and Morgenstern's)
axiomatization. A nice source of readings for various problems
with the classical axiomatization, alternative axiomatizations,
and a strong defense of the classical axiomatization.
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ISBN: 0-412-31120-8 (HC), 0-412-31170-X (PB)
Meant as a tutorial on decision analysis, the book is a
collection of edited readings (with accompanying notes) taken
from publications of the Operational Research Society of Great
Britain.
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ISBN: 0-521-24064-6 (HC), 0-521-28414-7 (PB)
A standard reference for human judgment under uncertainty from
the perspective of the "heuristics and biases " school of thought.
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ISBN: 0-674-93197-1
Keeney's superbly written book stresses the importance of
focusing on values rather than focusing on alternatives in
decision making. The latter are only means of achieving the
desired values. This books is excellent for all teachers and
practitioners of decision analysis: it is a powerful reminder
that the most critical part of decision making is not choosing
from among a set of alternatives but rather generating them.
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ISBN: 0-521-43883-7
Keeney and Raiffa' s book is the standard reference for multi
attribute utility theory .I recommend it to my students as the
best source of information in case they face conflicting
objectives in their projects.
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ISBN: 0-534-51692-0
A comprehensive and yet accessible textbook on how to aid
strategic decision making using quantitative methods with a
wealth of practical advice concerning structuring decisions,
developing alternatives, and quantifying uncertainty and
preferences. The book demonstrates all quantitative techniques
on Excel spreadsheets, which, given the popularity of
spreadsheets as business tool, may be especially valuable to
managers and those intimidated by tools such as influence
diagrams. The author maintains a World Wide Web page devoted
to decision analysis resources at Arizona State University
including the book.
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A nice textbook for advanced students. Covers a broad range of
issues but perhaps not quite so much in depth. Gives a
meta-perspective of the field, including legitimation and
validation of decision processes. An good coverage (four
chapters) of multiperson decision making.
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[2nd edition]
ISBN: 0-471-90808-8
A pleasant, gentle introduction to normative decision making
(how decisions should be made). A well written argument for
Bayesian approach and the expected utility theory.
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ISBN: 0-07-048027-3
A modern and comprehensive treatment of decision making and
decision analysis. Good integration of operations research
and managament science forecasting and prediction techniques
with decision making. The main focus of the book is on model
building using both influence diagrams and decision trees
(influence diagrams, in particular, get very good coverage).
Seems suitable as a textbook for business and economics
students in a quantitative business program or advanced
engineering students. Advanced concepts section deals with
the finer points of influence diagrams. Includes a coupon
for a $35.- student version of the DATA Program. The authors
maintain a World Wide Web page devoted to the book that
contains synopsis, features, table of contents, errata, and
a link to the McGraw-Hill reference page for the book.
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ISBN: 0-521- 36542-2
Morgan and Henrion' s book provides a comprehensive coverage
of issues and methods related to uncertainty in policy
analysis, although it is clear that the book has a strong
decision-analytic flavor. Strong both theoretically and
practically. One of the authors (Henrion) is the principal
developer of Analytica, one of the computer programs that I
use in my course.
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ISBN: 0-471-92381-8
This book is a collection of papers that are at the interface
of decision analysis and Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence.
The binding idea of the book are advances in graphical
probabilistic models, such as influence diagrams and their
purely probabilistic part, Bayesian belief networks.
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ISBN: 0-07-554866-6
The book by Raiffa, one of the founders of decision analysis,
is a timeless classic that still makes an excellent reading.
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ISBN: 0-521-27304-8 9/13/99
Von Winterfeldt and Edwards' book provides an in-depth and
slightly advanced treatment of decision analysis. A strong
point of this book is its comprehensive treatment of behavioral
decision theory along with the theoretical foundations.
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ISBN: 0-521-32569-2 (HC), 0-521-31078-4 (PB)
I learned decision analysis myself from this book in graduate
school and I loved it. Unfortunately, this book is currently
out of print.
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ISBN: 0-13-511726-7
An integrated treatment of descriptive and normative aspects
of decision making aimed at abroad audience. Excellent
coverage of behavioral decision theory. Suitable for an
introductory course on judgment and decision behavior.
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